Jan 09, 2018 bent flyvbjerg, a danish geographer and oxford business professor who coined the iron law of megaprojects, probably wouldnt be at all surprised by the governments irrational approval of site c. Flyvbjerg, phronesis and the expertise of teachers ed. Overestimation of demand and underestimation of costs, chapters, in. Bent flyvbjerg of oxford university speaks with econtalk host russ roberts about. Rationality and power was originally published in danish in 1991, following a public outcry against irrational planning, overspending and. Quality control and due diligence in project management. Pdf what you should know about megaprojects and why. He is the most cited scholar in the world in megaproject planning and management, and among the most cited in social science methodology.
Fem misforstaelser om casestudiet five misunderstandings. It is a fine addition to sociological theory, and deserves a careful reading. It is a new addition to the venerable tradition set down by peter winch, hubert dreyfus, harold garfinkel, and many others, who claim that the canons. What you should know about megaprojects pmi academic. In lurid and startling detail it examines dozens of vast. Bent flyvbjerg, nils bruzelius, werner rothengatter. How inaccurate are demand forecasts in public works projects.
Megaproject management, by bent flyvbjerg home facebook. Bent flyvbjerg first bt professor and inaugural chair of. To provide a critique of bent flyybjergs work that has high relevance to the pm literature. This post completes my rebuttal by examining how the modern account of aristotles phronesis originated and why it offers an unsatisfactory account of teaching expertise. Bent flyvbjerg is the first bt professor and inaugural chair of major programme management at said business school and a professorial fellow of st annes college. The aalborg project may be interpreted as a metaphor of modern politics, modern administration and planning, and of modernity itself. The case of transportation bent flyvbjerg, mette k. Flyvbjerg, bent, priemus, hugo and van wee, bert, eds. He was previously professor of planning at aalborg university, denmark and chair of infrastructure policy and planning at delft university of technology, the netherlands. Bent flyvbjerg, 2014, what you should know about megaprojects and why.
The modern theory of phronesis was first proposed by bent flyvbjerg. The book was written as a defence of sociology against the attacks of lewontin and sokal see my elephant in the room. This page is for people who want to be on the cutting edge of megaproject planning and management, curated by professor bent flyvbjerg, oxford. We interviewed bent flyvbjerg, who has extensively studied megaproject development. Curbing optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation in. Bent flyvbjerg shows that rationality is contextdependent and that the crucial context is determined by decisionmakers power. Making social science matter presents an exciting new approach to social science, including theoretical argument, methodological guidelines, and examples of practical application. An anatomy of ambition 2003 by bent flyvbjerg is a dry but interesting look at how expensive projects are chronically over budget, under utilised and delivered late. Follow bent flyvbjerg and explore their bibliography from s bent flyvbjerg author page. And thats your fourth sublime, and a driver for megaprojects. Sunstein, 2016, the principle of the malevolent hiding hand.
Bent flyvbjerg p00004 report for the commission of inquiry respecting the muskrat falls project by dr. Mega project definition a mega project is an extremely largescale investment project. Bent flyvbjerg 2006, from nobel prize to project management. Page 8 of 32 national fiscal distress has recently become an important driver in attempts at reforming the. Bent flyvbjerg is professor and chair of major programme management at oxford university. Overestimation of demand and underestimation of costs.
Flyvbjerg presents strong evidence showing how megaprojects usually unfold. Molin 2010, lockin and its influence on the project performance of largescale transportation infrastructure projects. The ones marked may be different from the article in the profile. Professor flyvbjergs research focuses on the better management of megaprojects, including the olympic games, and cities. Managing mega projects content mega projects definition mega projects challenges driving and executing mega projects to success. Bent flyvbjerg, university of oxford, said business school, faculty member.
Bent flyvbjerg author of making social science matter. Cost estimates at each successive stage typically progress toward a smaller. The extent and magnitude of actual environmental impacts of projects are often very different from. Getting decisions right by taking the outside view, papers 2. Bent flyvbjerg demonstrates a sound method for improving cost forecasts here in the 2006 project management journal, its a fairly long and academic article, so ill provide a brief summary. View bent flyvbjerg s profile on linkedin, the worlds largest professional community. At the same time that case studies are widely used and have produced canonical texts, it may be observed that the case study as a methodology is generally held in low regard, or is simply ignored, within the academy. From the channel tunnel to bostons big dig, large cost overruns and schedule slips have characterized major transportation infrastructure projects aka megaprojects. Reference class forecasting in practice bent flyvbjerg aalborg university, denmark and delft university of technology, the. Bent flyvbjerg is the first bt professor and inaugural chair of major programme management at oxford universitys said business school and a professorial fellow of st annes college. Flyvbjerg, phronesis and the expertise of teachers ed tech now. Richly informed, powerfully argued, and clearly written, this book provides essential reading for.
An overview bent flyvbjerg, oxford university, uk this controversial, yet profound, paper challenges the prevailing wisdom relevant to mega project management. This round of research is based on the more than 5,400 projects that were in the database as of june 2012. Delivering largescale it projects on time, on budget, and. Finally, flyvbjerg has identified a number of misunderstandings about case study research and devised ways of correcting these misunderstandings. But megaprojects and risk, written by bent flyvbjerg, nils bruzelius and werner rothengatter, is a cracker.
Wheeler, this book makes an important contribution to understanding the infrastructure development process. Apr 11, 2015 the seattle project neatly corroborates flyvbjergs findings. He works for better management of megaprojects and cities. Bent also writes about the philosophy and methodology of social science. Flyvbjerg, bent, fem misforstaelser om casestudiet five misunderstandings about casestudy research february 2010. The basic idea of the project was comprehensive, coherent, and innovative, and it was based on rational and. Akademisk forlag, academic press, copenhagen pdf here. Pdf as megaprojects have become ubiquitous, their real benefits and costs have come under increased. The only close competition was the panama canal, which, when completed in 1914, had cost escalations of as much as 200 percent, and a couple of rail projects. It argues that over half of the infrastructure investments in china have destroyed rather than generated economic value. Bent flyvbjerg, a danish geographer and oxford business professor who coined the iron law of megaprojects, probably wouldnt be at all surprised by the governments irrational approval of. Isbn 9781845427375 link to full text available through this repo. The oxford handbook of megaproject management provides stateoftheart scholarship in the emerging field of megaproject management.
He was previously professor of planning ataalborg university, denmark and chair of infrastructure policy and planning at delft university of technology, the netherlands. Delivering largescale it projects on time, on budget, and on. Chinas infrastructure investments threaten its economic. The seattle project neatly corroborates flyvbjergs findings. It demonstrates the relevance and risk of so called megaprojects and delivers a strong plea for evidencebased research and increased. This serves to illustrate what may be called the iron law of megaprojects. Cantarelli, bent flyvbjerg, bert van wee and eric j. These can be finan another economic driver and it means that cial risks.
Pdf this paper takes stock of megaproject management, an emerging and hugely. How inaccurate are demand forecasts in public works. Bent flyvbjerg professor and founding chair of major programme management said business school oxford university draft 9. Bent flyvbjerg, massimo garbuio and dan lovallo 2009, delusion and deception in large infrastructure projects. Bent flyvbjerg is the author of making social science matter 3. Bent flyvbjerg has lent his name to the socalled flyvbjerg debate, which is a debate over the role of social science in society in response to his bookmaking social science matter. Current information and listing of economic research for bent flyvbjerg with repec shortid pfl122 advanced search economic literature. Flyvbjerg, five misunderstandings about casestudy research, 9. The book gives the strong impression that the big budget government and private projects like the channel tunnel, the oresund bridge and many rail. Bent flyvbjerg born 1952 is a danish economic geographer. Power blurs the dividing line between rationality and rationalization.
Buhl d espite the enormous sums of money being spent on transportation infrastructure, surprisingly little systematic knowledge exists about the costs, bene. Megaprojects are large, complex projects that typically cost billions of dollars and impact millions of people, like building a highspeed rail line, a megadam, a national health or pensions it system, a new widebody aircraft, or staging the olympics. An attempt at theorizing scale, in bent flyvbjerg, ed. A read is counted each time someone views a publication summary such as the title, abstract, and list of authors, clicks on a figure, or views or downloads the fulltext. Sep 12, 2016 a new study by the said business school finds that lowquality infrastructure investments pose significant risks to the chinese and the global economy. Comparison of capital costs per routekilometre in urban rail, papers 3. He is professor of major programme management at oxford universitys said business school and the first director of the universitys bt centre for major programme management.
Flyvbjerg, bent 2008 public planning of megaprojects. Bent flyvbjerg is the first bt professor and inaugural chair of major programme management at oxford. Why has social science failed in attempts to emulate natural science and produce normal theory. Curbing optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation in planning. The oxford handbook of megaproject management hardcover. The iron law, or what every politician should know about. Bent flyvbjerg, five misunderstandings about casestudy research, qualitative inquiry, vol. Bent flyvbjerg p00005 commission of inquiry respecting the muskrat falls project muskrat falls project timeline 9172018 cimfp p00006. Studies social sciences, management, and project management. An anatomy of ambition is a 2003 book by bent flyvbjerg, nils bruzelius, and werner rothengatter, published by cambridge university press.
This cited by count includes citations to the following articles in scholar. The approach flyvbjerg suggests is called reference class forecasting. Bent flyvbjerg argues that the strength of social science is in its rich, reflexive analysis of values and power, essential to the social and economic development of any society. Getting risks right, project management journal, 37 3, august, 515 11 24. According to chief economist and director of transportation policy at infrastructure management group, inc. Bent flyvbjerg, mette skamris holm, and soren buhl, underestimating. Cost overruns of 50 per cent to 100 per cent in real terms are common in megaprojects. Bent flyvbjerg argues that the strength of social science is in its rich, reflexive analysis of values and power. What you should know about megaprojects pmi academic summary. Bt professor and chair of major programme management, said business school. Making social science matter was written in danish and translated into english, very beautifully, by steven sampson.
We interviewed bent flyvbjerg, who has extensively studied megaproject. The result is a rationality that is often as imaginary as the time in little town, yet with very real social and environmental consequences. An overview bent flyvbjerg, said business school, oxford university, oxford, united kingdom mega, giga, tera. The best research on the extent of this problem is still the 2003 book megaprojects and risk, by danish researcher bent flyvbjerg and colleagues. He is the most cited scholar in the world in megaproject planning and management. Demand forecasts that are wrong by 20 per cent to 70 per cent compared with actual developments are common. Like infrastructure is the great space shrinker, and power, wealth and status increasingly belong to those who know how to shrink space, or know how to benefit from space being shrunk.
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